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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: other » The Genetic Blackmailer

version: 3 / updated: 2010-12-21
id: #1273 / version id: #1263
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Yair Sharan
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Last changed by: Yair Sharan
WI-WE status:

Source of inspiration

Other, please specify:   FESTOS project

The source of the Wild Card is

FESTOS is a FP7 security research project.


(max. 9 words)

The Genetic Blackmailer


(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Individual DNA is misused for extorsion.


security, DNA analysis, bio-data,, medical tests, forensics, privacy,,


(max. 250 characters)

Everyone might leave traces of DNA everywhere willingly or not. Present technology enables analysis of such DNA and its manipulation for negative purposes. Criminals can plant it to extor people or blame them for criminal acts.


Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.




please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world international crime might widely use this opportunity

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Biolabs in the hand of terrorists, exposing DNa in the media

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

cultural/religious filters (values, traditions, faith, spiritual beliefs)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)


technologies will be needed to counter this possibilty. DNA identification will not be valid for forensics

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1
please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific easy availablity of technology and knowledge
Values/Ethical/Cultural reduced sensativity of society to terrorists acts

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests)
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests)
change of value systems

Potential stakeholders' actions

it occurs
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) international treaties policy on knowledge control counterterrorism acts
Academic/Research sector awareness to proliferation of sensative knowledge

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Crime and terrorism
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Globalization vs. localization easy transfer of information
Techno-security, hazard & risk

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Health refusal to DNA medicine
Security Protection of Human data, Biometrics

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities encourage awareness to sensitive knowledge publication

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.
mutual awareness to the policy needed and resources to implement it

Relevance for future R&D and STI policies

Note: RTD = research and technology development; STI = science, technology and innovation
RTD to deal with relevant issues in security and fields like nanobio