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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: FP7 » Terrorists take algae production plants to their main targets

version: 3 / updated: 2011-02-08
id: #1629 / version id: #576
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Tuomo Kuosa
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Maurizio Sajeva
WI-WE status:

Source of inspiration

European Commission Framework Programme for RTD (FP7)

Theme/activity of inspiration

Theme 2 - Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology

Sub-theme/area of inspiration

Food quality and safety


(max. 9 words)

Terrorists take algae production plants to their main targets


(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
If world energy sector becomes dependent on algae biofuel production, terrorist know how vulnerable algae is for bioterrorism and how dependent many countries of sunny offschores are on their algae production. As oil sector is going down and algae is taking its place, new global geopolitical tensions arise. Ex-oil states drive terrorist attacks on algae.


terrorism, bioterrorism, algae, biofuels, energy, security threat.


(max. 250 characters)

As oil sector is going down and algae is taking its place, new global geopolitical tensions arise. Ex-oil states drive terrorist attacks on algae.


Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 7: security and defence
Ex-oil states drive terrorist attacks on algae

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
A counter trend/development/situation
(e.g. There is a massive decline in mobile phone usage due to fears of health hazards; Considerations of privacy lead to the banning of video surveillance in public spaces
production af algae becomes an objective for terrorists




please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably pervasive way (contagious or transmittable)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Collapse of a system

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1
please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Political political instability

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests)
enhanced vulnerabilities of critical infrastructures

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Water security/vulnerability

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
Environment (including Climate Change)

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)