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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: government » Space colonisation

version: 2 / updated: 2010-12-22
id: #1276 / version id: #1224
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Aharon Hauptman
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Last changed by: Aharon Hauptman
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Source of inspiration

Government bodies/officials (incl. reports, plans and statements)

The source of the Wild Card is

NASA: 'Humans Will Colonize the Solar System' http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/09/23/AR2005092301691.html


(max. 9 words)

Space colonisation


(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Low-cost space travel and human enhancement technologies enable massive migration of humans from earth and establishing permanent space colonies on other planet or on large space stations.


Space, colonisation, human enhancement, space travel, migration


(max. 250 characters)

Low-cost space travel and human enhancement technologies enable massive migration of humans from earth (where the environment is deteriorating) and establishing permanent space colonies on other planet or on large space stations.


Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.




please specify:
please select
Level 3: important for the European Union
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Better technologies for space travel; emerging technologies that support space habitats

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

Very uncertain

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1
please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social Growing tensions on planet earth
Technological/Scientific New technologies for more affordable and energy-efficient space travel. New technologies for human life support in space.
Environmental Environmental deterioration on planet earth.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests)
New opportunities for the survival and flourishing of the human civilisation

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Urban and rural dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Environment (including Climate Change)
Transport (including aeronautics)
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Increasing the efficiency and impact of public research through Joint Programming (i.e. combining national and pan-European research efforts) or the optimisation of research programmes and priorities, for example.
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)
Creating a closer link between researchers & policy-makers
(e.g. supporting both thematic and cross-cutting policies, highlighting the strategic purpose of the European Research Area, etc.