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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: history/past event » Mexico and Guatemala unifies

version: 4 / updated: 2013-01-29
id: #1956 / version id: #1956
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Orlando Vaca
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Last changed by: Orlando Vaca
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Source of inspiration

History/Past event (e.g. natural disasters, wars, discoveries, etc...)

The source of the Wild Card is



(max. 9 words)

Mexico and Guatemala unifies


(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
Because of the relationship between Mexico and Guatemala about the people who constantly migrates, they decided to unify and make a safer place and respect human rights for both societies. There have been a large amount of news about people from Guatemala being abused in their attempt of making their way in Mexico, and because of that, Mexico decided to approve a direct connection with the country for the people's rights and better life.


Mexico, Guatemala, Migration, Human Rights, Unification


(max. 250 characters)

Mexico and Guatemala unifies for the security of the people.


Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:

Features of life if the wild card manifests

Feature 1: business models and industrial environment
An increase of opportunities and creation of new jobs
Feature 2: education and research environment
Better education system for everyone.
Feature 3: consumers, markets and lifestyles
More people consuming and more exportations. New cultures or new lifestyles.
Feature 5: politics and global affairs
New system or policies and a greater relationship with South America. But maybe Mexico's relationship with North America could tense.
Feature 6: health and quality of life
Better health care and more programs to offer a better opportunity to everyone.
Feature 7: security and defence
More policies for everyone to be secure, a new police that can serve in both countries.

Type of event

Unplanned consequence of events/trends/situations (e.g. financial crisis, accidental breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
A new development/situation
(e.g. a Romani state is established in central Europe; A message from an alien civilisation existing on a distant planet is received and understood, etc.

Historical parallels

New countries would seek to also unify.

Type of systems affected

Human-built Systems - E.g. organisations, processes, technologies, etc.




please specify:
please select
Level 2: important for a particular world region

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

The migration problem between both countries have been continuously in that state because there is no settlement and not a compromise to solve it, and by that, a unification might be the solution.

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

information/communicational filters (media/editorial interests, language, reasoning)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Emergence of a new system (e.g. new technologies, new paradigms)


It will be necessary to create a new system because of the different perspectives of government, culture, lifestyle.

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1
please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Social adaptation of cultures clash of cultures
Economic new currency new economic system
Political policies made for a safer environment creation of policies for the insurance of a new way of living.

Potential impacts (risks & opportunities)

Timeframe options
Risks Opportunities
(within 1 year after the Wild Card manifests)
clash of cultures, no adaptation. better opportunities for people in Guatemala
short term
(1 to 5 years after the Wild Card manifests)
economic destabilisation creation of new policies depending of the problems that might appear
medium term
(5 to 10 years after the Wild Card manifests)
no adaptation and fall of economic standard A creation of a new country
long term
(more than 10 years after the Wild Card manifests)
There were no progress, only alterations and worsen the reality A better and safer country for all the people, a good adaptation.

Potential stakeholders' actions

it occurs
it occurs
Policy actors (at the international, European and national levels) support the unification continue support and create relationships
Business actors (incl. SMEs) seek for new tendencies create new ways of having a relationship with the country and giving job opportunities
Academic/Research sector Follow the phenomenon Research or analyse what could go wrong or what have been right.
Non-for-profit organisations (e.g. NGOs, political parties, social movements, voluntary associations) show support to people who need it Support the misplaced people who might need them.
Media follow the phenomenon analyse what had occur and show interest
General public try to mentalize it try to adapt to change and make the government know what is needed.

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Behavioural change
Coexistence and conflicts
Diseases, health and well-being
Education dynamics
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Food security and diet
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Work-Life balance and mental health
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization
Urban and rural dynamics

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities
Regional development
Science in society
International S&T Cooperation

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Developing and funding world-class research infrastructures
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Overcoming sub-criticality and systemic failures
To be subcritical means that the effort in a particular field or subfield lacks resources, equipment or a sufficient number of researchers to achieve a desired goal
Addressing cohesion through a localised articulation between supply and demand
(e.g. making research institutions more engaged with their own context and local users; reinforcing knowledge flows into and out of regions; etc.