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Mapping Wild Cards

Inspired by: scientists/researchers » A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources

version: 3 / updated: 2011-01-21
id: #1471 / version id: #800
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ondrej Valenta
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Martin Fatun
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Source of inspiration

Scientists/researchers (incl. reports, plans and statements)


(max. 9 words)

A considerable increase in efficiency of renewable resources


(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Wild Card (approx. 150 words)
An ongoing rapid development of renewable resources of energy results in increase of their efficiency, availability and stability. As a result, some countries start to consider renewable resources as a real alternative to conventional sources of energy, including nuclear. If it succeeded in further development of renewable technologies, particularly in significant increase of their efficiency, availability, stability, there would be a likely decline in nuclear energy.


energy, resources, alternative, nuclear, renewable


(max. 250 characters)

Gradual abandonment of nuclear energy for the sake of renewable energy sources, which are highly efficient in energy production


Closest timeframe for at least 50% likelihood
Please use one of the following options:

Type of event

Human planned (e.g. terrorist attack or funded scientific breakthrough)

Type of emergence

please select (if any) describe related trend or situation
An extreme extension of a trend/development/situation
(e.g. Increased global warming leads to a total ban on fossil fuels)
the strive for higher efficiency of enrgy production from renewable sources of energy succeeded

Type of systems affected





please specify:
please select
Level 4: important for the whole world

Early indicators

(including weak signals)

Growing efficiency of various renewable sources in production of energy

Latent phase

Obstacles for early indentification

economic filters (business/market interests)
scientific filters (knowledge/technology access)

Manifestation phase

Type of manifestation

In a probably enclosed way (e.g. geographically, sectorally)

Aftermath phase

Important implications
Transformation of a system (e.g. new applications, change in stakeholders relations/influence)

Key drivers or triggers

Provide up to 2 possible drivers or triggers of HIGH importance. Click on HELP to see examples:
please describe
Driver / Trigger 1
please describe
Driver / Trigger 2
Technological/Scientific scientific breakthrough in research on renewable energy sources
Economic growing energy demand of the industry
Environmental continuous damage of natural environment

Relevance for Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Energy security/dynamics
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Sustainability and climate change

Relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, and Biotechnology
ICT - Information & communication technologies
Nanosciences, nanotech, materials & new prod. tech.
Environment (including Climate Change)
Nuclear research
Research infrastructures

Pan-European strategies potentially helping to deal with the wild card

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening research institutions and universities
Facilitating and promoting knowledge sharing and transfer
Fostering and facilitating coherent international cooperation in science and technology

 Features of a research-friendly ecology contributing to deal with the wild card

For further information about 'research-friendly strategies' click here

please justify:
particularly relevant
Strengthening the actors in the research-friendly ecology
(i.e. Research funding organisations, universities, businesses, Research and Technology Organisations, Researchers and Citizens)