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Mapping Weak Signals

Inspired by: interviews » Threats like North Korea.

version: 4 / updated: 2011-11-21
id: #1924 / version id: #1924
mode: VIEW

Originally submitted by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
List of all contributors by versions (mouse over)
Last changed by: Ivan Montenegro Perini
WI-WE status:
submitted unpublished

Source of inspiration

Interviews

The source of the Weak Signal is

Victor VAN RIJ, University of Amsterdam, interviewed by "MIOIR".

Signal's headline

(max. 9 words)
Threats like North Korea.

Signal's description

(approx. 150 words)
Please describe the Weak Signal (approx. 150 words)
According to Victor VAN RIJ "If you had a lot of these kinds of incidents – suppose North Korea is doing this and Iran is doing this and Israel or Pakistan or India are starting to – we will get a situation where we see a Cold War kind of reaction from China and the US on certain resources in Africa. I don’t have these signals yet, but for geopolitical tensions I would focus on these kinds of signals. There is much more you can imagine. You can look at certain kinds of small events throughout the world and check out whether they are increasing; but on the other hand, the signals might be the triggers in this one. If you think about the nuclear one, the signals might be ticking away before it goes boom."

Keywords

tension, natural resources, African resources, economy, social, political, global competition.

Mini-description

(max. 250 characters)
Threats like North Korea, which might blow up.

Signal's potential evolution

It could lead to...
issue type of issue/development potential impact on society timeframe for the issue to become at least 50% probable
#1 new/emerging
 		beneficial
#2 new/emerging
 		harmful

Importance

please specify
please select
Level 1: important for a particular country
Level 4: important for the whole world

Filters preventing the signal's monitoring

economic filters (business/market interests)
political filters (party or ideological interests)
social filters (class, status, education level)

Signal's relevance for European Grand Challenges

where? please justify:
particularly relevant Europe world
Ageing and other demographic tensions
Ethics and abuse of S&T
Governance and trust in democracy
Social pathologies & ethics
Social exclusion & poverty
Social cohesion and diversity
Economic prosperity/dynamics
Globalization vs. localization

Signal's relevance for thematic research areas

please justify:
particularly relevant
Social Sciences and Humanities